Fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway

I think easily the most sobering thing I've read in a long time is that the BP Gulf oil spill might now be unstoppable.

It's never the best editorial practice in a situation like this to laminate comments on top of comments on top of comments, but the internet is a-riot tonight with a chain of frankly terrifying speculation that boils down to one anonymous note posted on The Oil Drum earlier this week (which you can read in full through that link). In a nutshell, "the well bore structure is compromised 'down hole'," we read, leading to "one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking." This means that no surface capping will ever, at this point, work; the well is leaking in too many places, and the seabed itself is now beginning to show signs of collapse.

Indeed, the comment immediately following suggests that "a massive collapse of the Gulf floor itself is in the making," and that "fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway"—meaning that no fewer than 2 billion barrels of oil could leak into the Gulf before the reservoir has fully depleted itself. That's two billion.

Again: this is all rumors, anonymous comments, and geological speculation, but it's also the most chilling scenario I've read yet for what is already an ecological disaster. The consequences of an unstoppable, multi-billion-barrel oil spill in the Gulf are truly unimaginable.

Read the Oil Drum comment and feel free to join one of the numerous threads discussing it.

(Spotted via @stevesilberman).